Faktor Osean – Atmosfer untuk Memprediksi Titik Panas (Hostspot) di Wilayah Asia Tenggara Bagian Selatan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuat pemodelan prediksi titik panas (hotspot) di wilayah Asia Tenggara bagian Selatan dengan sejumlah prediktor signifikan menggunakan Model Multiple Regression (MR) dan untuk melakukan verifikasi prediksi model tersebut. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data observasi titik panas (hotspot) di Wilayah Indonesia yakni di Pulau Kalimantan dan Sumatera dan di Wilayah Semenanjung Malaysia serta Sabah-Sarawak. Kemudian data indeks El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dan Monsun selama 6 tahun mulai dari tahun 2013 hingga 2018 sebagai data prediktor. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Model Multiple Regression dengan Metode Regresi Stepwise dan verifikasi skill model prediksi yang digunakan yaitu Korelasi Pearson dan RMSE. Berdasarkan hasil pemodelan dan verifikasi prediksi terbaiknya, diperoleh nilai Korelasi Pearson sebesar 0,698 dan nilai RMSE-nya sebanyak 908 hotspot. Untuk model prediksi di wilayah Sumatera oleh 7 prediktor signifikan yang terkait dengan kejadian hotspot yaitu, IOD 0 (IOD pada bulan munculnya hotspot), MJO 0, MJO 9, MJO 10, Mons 1, MJO 8, dan MJO 5. Untuk wilayah Kalimantan nilai Korelasi Pearson sebesar 0,795 dan nilai RMSE-nya sebanyak 1150 hotspot oleh 4 prediktor signifikan, MJO 9 (MJO pada 9 bulan sebelum munculnya hotspot), Mons 1, Mons 0, dan ENSO 3. Untuk wilayah Semenanjung Malaysia diperoleh nilai Korelasi Pearson sebesar 0,145 dan nilai RMSE-nya sebanyak 135 hotspot oleh 2 prediktor signifikan, Mons 2 (Mons pada 2 bulan sebelum munculnya hotspot) dan MJO 0. Kemudian untuk wilayah Sabah dan Sarawak diperoleh nilai Korelasi Pearson sebesar 0,242 dan nilai RMSE-nya sebanyak 113 hotspot oleh 2 prediktor signifikan, IOD 2 (IOD pada 2 bulan sebelum munculnya hotspot) dan MJO 0. Untuk wilayah Sumatera prediktor yang paling berpengaruh yaitu IOD 0, yakni fenomena IOD khususnya fenomena IOD (+) penyebab terjadinya musim kering ini beberapa kali terjadi di wilayah Pulau Sumatera karena letaknya berdekatan langsung dengan Samudera Hindia sehingga iklimnya juga dipengaruhi oleh lautan di dekatnya. Untuk fenomena MJO dan Monsun yang paling berpengaruh di Wilayah Kalimantan (MJO 9), Semenanjung Malaysia (Mons 2) serta Sabah - Sarawak (MJO 0). Kedua fenomena tersebut secara periodik selalu melintas di ketiga wilayah tadi khususnya berkontribusi pada bulan-bulan terjadinya musim kering, sehingga diindikasikan dapat mempengaruhi munculnya hotspot

Implementing predictive models for domestic decision-making against dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics

The efficacy of two simple models for predicting dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) epidemics are\ud evaluated. One model uses persistence while the other uses past dengue cases and climate factors to\ud make predictions. It is shown that the efficacy of the models is not significantly different. The value of the prediction is also investigated when it is used to decide whether it can protect a household from epidemics. When the model predicts that a DHF epidemic is forthcoming, a highly effective but low-cost DEET product is applied by the whole family as protection against mosquito bites. It is found that the cost of implementing such a model for prediction is much cheaper than other options such as: (i)\ud using protection without any forecast; and (ii) neglecting any protection. It is also found that the value of a forecast depends on the forecast skill and the cost-to-loss ratio

Estimasi Dosis Efektif Pasien Bagian Abdomen dari Hasil Pemeriksaan CT-Scan Merek Siemens SOMATOM

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dosis efektif yang diterima pasien yang mengalami eksaminasi CT pada bagian perut (abdomen). Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data pasien yang dikumpulkan dari Departemen Radiologi di salah satu rumah sakit di Makassar dan merupakan hasil eksaminasi CT-Scan Simens tipe SOMATOM bagian abdomen 80 pasien. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai rata-rata  CTDIvol dan dosis efektif yang diterima pasien laki-laki masing-masing 7,87 mGy dan 5,52 mSv, sedangkan untuk pasien perempuan masing-masing 7,53 mGy dan 4,97 mSv Dosis yang diterima pasien tersebut masih dalam ambang batas yang telah ditetapkan oleh BAPETEN

PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI KONSERVASI AIR TANAH DAN PENJERNIHAN AIR DI KELURAHAN BUNTU SUGI KECAMATAN ALLA KABUPATEN ENREKANG

Ground water is stored in layers called aquifers. These aquifers can be found in coastal plains, foothills, inter-mountain valleys, alluvial plains and karst topographic areas. The village of Buntu sugi, located in the foothill area in the form of alluvial plains and a little karst topography in the north. Buntu Sugi Village has four ground water sources in the form of springs. The four springs are Bubun Salle, Bubu Sudu, Bubun Matua, and Wailandan. All these springs are used by the community for daily living needs for cooking and for drinking water and used for agriculture. The condition of water resources in Buntu Sugi Urban Village is decreasing quantity and quantity is smaller flow rates in the dry season and a higher turbidity level in the rainy season. The efforts made in this community service are to educate the community on how to conserve springs or ground water and how to process polluted ground water so that it is suitable for use. Furthermore, training will be given to the appropriate technology community that can be used in the process of processing and purifying polluted water. The training on making Biopori Infiltration Holes and making water purification equipment has given the ability for participants. ---  Air tanah tersimpan dalam lapisan yang disebut akuifer. Akuifer tersebut dapat dijumpai pada dataran pantai, daerah kaki gunung, lembah antar pegunungan, dataran aluvial dan daerah topografi karst. Kelurahan Buntu sugi yang berada di daerah kaki gunung berupa dataran alluvial dan sedikit topografi karst di bagian utara. Wilayah Kelurahan Buntu Sugi terdapat empat sumber air tanah berupa mata air yaitu Bubun Salle, Bubun Sudu, Bubun Matua, dan Wailandan. Seluruh mata air tersebut digunakan masyarakat untuk keperluan hidup sehari-hari untuk memasak, untuk air minum dan kebutuhan pertanian. Penurunan kuantitas dan kuantitas ditandai dengan debit aliran yang semakin kecil pada musim kemarau dan melimpah pada musim hujan dengan tingkat kekeruhan yang semakin tinggi. Upaya yang dilakukan dalam pengabdian masyarakat ini adalah melakukan penyuluhan kepada masyarakat bagaimana melestarikan mata air atau air tanah dan bagaimana memproses air tanah yang tercemar sehingga layak digunakan. Tujuan pengabdian untuk melakukan edukasi kepada masyarakat pentingnya konservasi air tanah dan bagaimana teknologi konservasi air tanah dan pelatihan kepada masyarakat teknologi tepat guna (TTG) yang dapat digunakan dalam proses pengolahan dan penjernihan air yang tercemar.  Pelatihan pembuatan Lubang Resapan Biopori (LRB) dan pembuatan alat penjernihan air telah memberikan keterampilan kepada peserta untuk membuat resapan air dan alat penjernihan air

PKM KONSERVASI AIR TANAH DI KECAMATAN MAPPAKASUNGGU DAN MANGGARABOMBANG KABUPATEN TAKALAR

Groundwater Conservation in Mappakasunggu and Manggarabombang, District TakalarAbstract. Groundwater is water that is contained in layers of soil or rocks below the surface. Many damages are caused by excessive groundwater extraction. For example, one of the residents' wells in Tamaona Lengkese that had been closed because the water had turned to salt water after being used for 10 years. This phenomenon shows that there is sea water intrusion because the rate of groundwater exploitation is greater than the rate of recharge. Besides that, every year there is a drought in the dry season and flooding in the rainy season. Therefore, to avoid a prolonged water crisis, there must be efforts from the government and all levels of society to conserve groundwater. To overcome the various problems of the partners, the Unhas PPMU-PKM team conducted groundwater conservation counseling and training. Counseling is done to the community to understand the existence of ground water and how its conservation. While training was given to improve the skills of the community to conserve groundwater. The results of this education and training are that more than 80% participants have understood how the presence of ground water and its conservation and are able to conserve groundwater with infiltration holes and injection wells.Keywords: Biopore, permeability, ground water, conservation.Abstrak. Air tanah adalah air yang terdapat dalam lapisan tanah atau bebatuan di bawah permukaan tanah. Banyak dampak kerusakan yang ditimbulkan akibat pengambilan air tanah yang berlebihan. Sebagai contoh, salah satu sumur  warga di Tamaona Lengkese yang telah ditutup karena airnya sudah berubah menjadi air asin setelah digunakan 10 tahun. Fenomena ini menunjukkan adanya intrusi air laut karena laju pengambilan air tanah jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dengan laju pengimbuhan. Selain itu setiap tahun di daerah tersebut terjadi kekeringan pada musim kemarau dan banjir pada musim hujan. Oleh karena itu, harus ada upaya pemerintah dan lapisan masyarakat untuk melakukan konservasi air tanah untuk menghindari krisis air berkepanjangan. Untuk mengatasi berbagai persoalan mitra tersebut tim PPMU-PKM Unhas melakukan penyuluhan dan pelatihan konservasi air tanah. Penyuluhan dilakukan kepada masyarakat untuk memahami keberadaan air tanah dan bagaimana konservasinya. Sedangkan pelatihan diberikan untuk meningkatkan keterampilan masyarakat untuk melakukan konservasi air tanah. Hasil dari penyuluhan dan pelatihan ini adalah peserta telah memahami bagaimana keberadaan air tanah dan konservasinya diatas 80% dan mampu melakukan konservasi air tanah dengan lubang resapan dan sumur injeksi.Kata kunci:  Biopori, permeabilitas, air tanah, konservasi

Determining flow field singularities from drifter trajectories

This thesis is concerned with techniques for determining the properties of singularities in the flow field. Okubo and Ebbesmeyer (1976) and Molinari and Kirwan (1975) developed a regression technique that has become a standard for determining velocity gradients of the flow field. Kirwan (1988) has pointed out that this regression technique is fundamentally inadequate because is assumes a paradigm with the flow centre fixed to the centroid of the drifter cluster. Kirwan et al., (1988) formulated a solution to this dilemma by inverting non-linear solutions obtained by Okubo (1970) for motion near a flow field singularity with specified differential kinematic properties (DKP). The DKP are horizontal divergence, vorticity, stretching and shearing deformation rate. We solve the non-linear equations of Kirwan et al., (1988) to obtain DKP and the position and velocity of a flow field singularity from a single drifter trajectory. This solution (henceforth called the OK solution) is mathematically more concise than that presented in Kirwan et al., (1988) and corrects previously undetected algebraic errors in the published literature. It has been successfully tested using artificially generated data. The method is fundamentally limited due to the requirement that DKP are time invariant. It also has the undesirable feature that it requires fourth order time derivatives of data. A new method, the HS method, that uses regression without artificially setting a flow centre to the cluster centroid is presented. It has also been successfully tested by application to artificially generated data. The DKP are successfully recovered by the HS providing all drifters in the cluster are being moved by the same unique singularity in the flow field. -- Applying all three methods to three neighbouring drifter tracks measured on Sable Island Bank clearly indicated the limitations of all three methods. The regression technique Okubo and Ebbesmeyer (1976), the OE method, ‘failed’ because the flow centre was not at the cluster centroid position. The OK method gives ambiguous results in that it can not distinguish between solid body rotation about a point and a slab that oscillates. The lack of a single well defined flow centre for all three drifter trajectories was sufficient to ensure the HS method gave meaningless DKP that had large intermittent fluctuations. Nevertheless, given trajectories near a well-defined flow field singularity, we can be assured that both the HS and OK method can be used to obtain the position, velocity and SKP of the singularity. Depending upon the separation scales of the drifters, the HS method can be much less or more sensitive to noise than the OK method

Assessing Quality and Value of Predictive Models for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics

Developing, validating, and implementing climate-based statistical models for reducing DHF cases.Two simple models for predicting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) epidemic events from the city of Makassar are developed. The models are based on multiple regression and discriminant analysis techniques. Both models use past and present DHF cases, climate and meteorological observations as inputs. The inputs for each model are selected using a stepwise method to predict whether or not a DHF epidemic event will occur. Cross-validation test is performed for each model and its forecast quality is measured using a Peirce skill score. The value of model prediction is simulated and evaluated in a situation where the prediction is tailored into a decision making problem as to protect a family from DHF epidemics. When a DHF epidemic is predicted to occur, the family applies an insect-repellent product to avoid mosquito bites. On the other hand, the family abandon this mode of protection when an epidemic is not predicted to occur. Implementation of such a prediction in this particular situation resulting in lower expenses than those of other options such as: using a protection without any forecast and neglecting any protection. Both model predictions are valuable up to 3 month lead times

A predictive model for Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) epidemics.

A simple climate-based regression model for DHF predictionA statistical model for predicting monthly Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) cases from the city of Makassar is developed and tested. The model uses past and present DHF cases, climate and meteorological observations as inputs. These inputs are selected using a stepwise regression method to predict future DHF cases. The model is tested independently and its skill assessed using two skill measures. Using the selected variables as inputs, the model is capable of predicting a moderately-severe epidemic at lead times of up to six months. The most important input variable in the prediction is the present number of DHF cases followed by the relative humidity three to four months previously. A prediction 1???6 months in advance is sufficient to initiate various activities to combat DHF epidemic. The model is suitable for warning and easily becomes an operational tool due to its simplicity in data requirement and computational effort

FOLK ASTRONOMY: UPAYA MERAIH (KEMBALI) POSISI KEEMASAN ASTRONOMI

Astronomi pernah menempati posisi terhormat dahulu kala dan sekarang masa itu telah berlalu. Saat ini ada persoalan ummat yang potensial bisa mengangkat kembali posisi astronomi, yaitu bagaimana menyatukan hari raya ummat Islam. Salah satu caranya dengan menyajikan kurikulum astronomi yang merakyat yakni perkuliahan Folk Astronomy di institusi-institusi pendidikan

A predictive model for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever epidemics

A statistical model for predicting monthly Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) cases from the city of Makassar is developed and tested. The model uses past and present DHF cases, climate and meteorological observations as inputs. These inputs are selected using a stepwise regression method to predict future DHF cases. The model is tested independently and its skill assessed using two skill measures. Using the selected variables as inputs, the model is capable of predicting a moderately-severe epidemic at lead times of up to six months. The most important input variable in the prediction is the present number of DHF cases followed by the relative humidity three to four months previously. A prediction 1-6 months in advance is sufficient to initiate various activities to combat DHF epidemic. The model is suitable for warning and easily becomes an operational tool due to its simplicity in data requirement and computational effort